Russia may be laying the groundwork for false-flag attacks in the Baltic Sea and against Russian opposition figures abroad to discredit Ukraine, a think tank has said.
Newsweek has contacted Russia's Foreign Ministry for comment by email.
Why It Matters
Russia has repeatedly accused Ukraine throughout the war of planning false-flag attacks. The tactic is part of a broader pattern of disinformation adopted by the Kremlin to undermine Western support for Ukraine in the conflict.
Ukraine's NATO allies have recently sounded the alarm over Russia's increased activity in the Baltic Sea, accusing Moscow of engaging in suspicious maneuvers near key undersea communication cables, which are vital to global communication systems. Moscow has denied any involvement in potential sabotage efforts.
What To Know
In analysis published on Tuesday, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a U.S.-based think tank, said that the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) accused Ukraine's Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR)—and other unspecified Western nations—of plotting to blow up a foreign vessel in the Baltic Sea.
The SVR said Ukraine and its allies plan on carrying out the act to provoke NATO into blocking Russia's access to the Baltic Sea and triggering "a direct armed conflict between Russia and NATO."
Russian intelligence also alleged that European intelligence services and Ukraine's GUR intend to "assassinate Russian opposition figures abroad" and blame Russia for these killings "to undermine future peace negotiations" between Moscow and Kyiv in the war.
These claims are part of a broader pattern of Russian allegations against Ukraine. In February 2023, Moscow accused Kyiv of plotting to stage a nuclear incident on its own soil to frame Russia ahead of a United Nations meeting. Similarly, in October 2022, Russian officials alleged that Ukraine intended to detonate a "dirty bomb" and pin the blame on Moscow.
Russia's allegations, which lack evidence, align with the Kremlin's broader disinformation efforts to erode Western support for Ukraine during the war.
What People Are Saying
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said on Tuesday: "Russia's SVR has previously accused Ukraine and other Western states of planning false flag attacks to discredit Ukraine and drive a wedge in Western unity behind Ukraine, particularly at critical moments in Western discussions regarding support for Ukraine and a possible peace plan."
What Happens Next
President Donald Trump said on Wednesday he will be meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin to begin negotiations to potentially broker peace talks between Ukraine and Russia in the war.
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About the writer
Isabel van Brugen is a Newsweek Reporter based in Kuala Lumpur. Her focus is reporting on the Russia-Ukraine war. Isabel ... Read more